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Présentation

Statistical and Mathematical Modeling in Biological Applications — SaMMBA

The seminar series Statistical and Mathematical Modeling in Biological Applications (SaMMBA) features monthly lectures and discussions with leading modelers in biological sciences. Presentations are in English or French and target an interdisciplinary audience. Seminars are held on the campus of Institut Pasteur. Access is free. However, to enter the campus, one needs a badge that is obtained at the main gate in exchange of a piece of ID (passport, citizen card or driver licence). If you are planning to come from outside the campus, please contact Lulla Opatowski to have a badge ready when you arrive.

For additional information about the series, contact the organizers: Pierre-Yves BöelleRomulus BrebanVittoria ColizzaJudith LegrandLulla OpatowskiChiara Poletto, Virginie SupervieLaura Temime and Elisabeta Vergu. To arrange to meet with an invited speaker, contact the host of that speaker. 

The SaMMBA seminars receive financial support from the ANRS and the region Ile de France through the “DIM Systèmes complexes” and from the department MIA of INRA. 

Next Lecture

David Paltiel  (Yale school of Public Health)

Do Less Harm: Evaluating HIV Programmatic Alternatives in Response to Cutbacks in Foreign Aid

Abstract:  
Background: Resource-limited nations must consider their response to potential contractions in international support for HIV programs. We sought to evaluate the clinical, epidemiologic, and budgetary consequences of alternative HIV program scale-back strategies in 2 recipient nations, the Republic of South Africa (RSA)  and Côte d’Ivoire (CI).
Methods: We used a first-order Monte Carlo simulation of HIV disease progression and treatment in resource-limited settings, to compare alternative approaches to scaling back HIV testing, linkage, treatment, monitoring, and retention activities as a means of budgetary contraction. We analyzed 10 annual cohorts of HIV-infected persons beginning in 2016, and accounted for new infections, new diagnoses, ART initiations, loss to follow-up, and ART-associated virologic outcomes. Performance measures included new HIV transmissions, deaths, years of life accrued, and overall HIV-related financial outlays (international or domestic), measured in undiscounted and discounted (for incremental cost-effectiveness analysis) 2015 U.S. dollars. Each alternative scale-back approach was compared with a “current standard” benchmark, representing the present-day state of treatment. We conducted the analysis over 5- and 10-year horizons in RSA and CI to highlight important differences between the countries in terms of HIV disease burden, standards of HIV care, and relative domestic contribution to their overall HIV/AIDS program budget.Results: At 10 years, scale-back strategies increase projected HIV transmissions by 0.5% to 19.4% and deaths by 0.6% to 39.1%. Strategies can produce budgetary savings of up to 30% but no more. Compared with the current standard, nearly every scale-back strategy produces proportionally more HIV deaths (and transmissions, in RSA) than savings. When applying the least harmful and most efficient alternatives for achieving budget cuts of 10% to 20%, every year of life lost will save roughly $900 in HIV-related outlays in RSA and $600 to $900 in CI.
Conclusion: Scaling back international aid to HIV programs will have severe adverse clinical consequences; for similar economic savings, certain programmatic scale-back choices result in less harm than others.
Contact: Virginie Surpervie

Wednesday, Nov 14th, 2017
12 noon -1 pm 
Institut Pasteur
Room auditorium François Jacob

 

Full Schedule 2017-2018

Benoit Durand

Analysis of the Spatial Organization of Pastures as a Contact Network, Implications for Potential Disease Spread and Biosecurity in Livestock, France, 2010

Tuesday, Sept 5th, 2017
12 noon -1 pm 
Institut Pasteur
Room BIME 28-01-01A

Thibaut Jombart

The R Epidemics Consortium: building the next generation of statistical tools for outbreak response using R Tuesday, Oct 4th, 2017
12 noon -1 pm 
Institut Pasteur
Room BIME 28-01-01A
 

David Paltiel

 Do Less Harm: Evaluating HIV Programmatic Alternatives in Response to Cutbacks in Foreign Aid  Wednesday, Nov 14th, 2017
12 noon -1 pm 
Institut Pasteur
Room auditorium François Jacob
 Thibaud Porphyre     Wednesday, Dec 13th, 2017
12 noon -1 pm 
Institut Pasteur
Room auditorium François Jacob
     
     
     
     
     
     

 

Full Schedule 2016-2017

Raphaëlle METRAS 

Studying drivers for arboviral emergence: the case of Rift Valley fever in Mayotte

Abstract

Wednesday, Sept 7th, 2016 
12 noon -1 pm 
Room BIME 28-01-01A

Rebecca GRAIS

A heat-stable rotavirus vaccine: a Phase III trial in Niger

Abstract

Friday, Oct 14th, 2016
12 noon -1 pm
Room BIME 28-01-01A

Christophe FRASER

Tracking and tackling the HIV-1 pandemic: models, evolution, genomics 

 

Abstract

Wednesday, Nov 9th, 2016
12 noon -1 pm
Room Retrovirus

Niel HENS

Using frailty models to quantify heterogeneity in acquisition of infectious diseases based on multivariate serological data

Abstract

Tuesday, Dec 6th, 2016
12 noon -1 pm
Room Jean Paul  Aubert

Kevin JEAN

Modelling Yellow Fever burden in Africa: insights for short- and long-term control strategies.

 

Abstract

Wednesday, Jan 4th, 2017
12 noon -1 pm
Room BIME 28-01-01A

Michele TIZZONI

 Fast and accurate dynamic estimation of field effectiveness of meningococcal vaccines

 

Thursday, Feb 2nd, 2017
12 noon -1 pm
Room Jean Paul  Aubert

Anne GOELZER

Quantitative prediction of genome-wide resource allocation in bacteria

 

Tuesday, March 7th, 2017
12 noon -1 pm
Room Jean Paul  Aubert

Viet Chi Tran 

Modèles mathématiques pour des épidémies se propageant sur des graphes aléatoires

 

Wednesday, April 19th, 2017
12 noon -1 pm
Room Retrovirus

Karoline Faust

 Modeling the dynamics of a synthetic gut community

 

 Wednesday, May 3rd, 2017
12 noon -1 pm
Room Retrovirus

Romulus Breban

 Diffusion within Populations: From Infectious Diseases and Market Sales to Fashion First Names  

Thursday, June 8th, 2017
12 noon -1 pm
Room Jean Paul  Aubert

Full Schedule 2015-2016

Henrik SALJE

Use of mathematical modelling to reconstruct 60 years of chikungunya epidemiology in the Philippines

Abstract 

Wed, Sep 9th, 2015
  12 noon -1 pm 
Room Jean-Paul Aubert

Anton CAMACHO 

The impact of dynamical modelling on public-health decisions made during the 2013-2015 Ebola outbreak

Abstract

Tuesday, Oct 6th, 2015 
  12 noon -1 pm 
Room BIME 28-01-01A

 

Marc LAVIELLE

Modeling and simulation of complex pharmacometric models: methods and tools

Abstract

Tue, Nov 3rd, 2015
  12 noon -1 pm 
Room BIME 28-01-01A

David CLAESSEN

Eco-evolutionary dynamics in spatially complex systems: from agro-ecology to the global ocean

Abstract

Tue, Dec 8th, 2015
12 noon -1 pm 
Room Jean-Paul Aubert

Jean-Pierre NADAL

Modeling the contagion dynamics of the 2005 French riots

Abstract

Tuesday, Jan 5th, 2016
  12 noon -1 pm
Room BIME 28-01-01A

Mathieu ANDRAUD

Infectious diseases in pigs: from parameter estimation to dynamic models

Abstract

Tue, Feb 9th, 2016
  12 noon -1 pm 
Room BIME 28-01-01A

Marcel SALATHé

Digital Epidemiology: Opportunities & Challenges of an Evolving Field

Abstract

Wed, March 16th, 2016
  12 noon -1 pm 
Room BIME 28-01-01A

Daniela DE ANGELIS

Prediction of antibiotic resistance in Staphylcoccus aureus

Abstract

Tue, April 5th, 2016
  12 noon -1 pm 
Room Jean-Paul Aubert

Philippe LEMEY

 

Phylodynamic inference in viral outbreaks: power and limitations.

 

Abstract

Tue, May 3rd, 2016
  12 noon -1 pm 
Room BIME 28-01-01A

Hans BOGAARDS

Second-guessing the clustering of multiple HPV types: prospects of type replacement following mass immunization

Abstract

Tue, June 14th, 2016
  12 noon -1 pm 
Room BIME 28-01-01A

 

Full Schedule 2014-2015

 

Yamir MORENO

Dynamics of Interacting Diseases

Abstract 

Tue, Sep 9th, 2014
  12 noon -1 pm 
Room Jean-Paul Aubert

Chiara POLLETO

Modelling disease spatial spread and real time assessment of emerging pathogen events

Abstract

Wed, Oct 8th, 2014
  12 noon -1 pm 
Room BIME 28-01-01A

Gilles WAINRIB

Integrative network inference of gene expression data and applications to inflammatory bowel disease

Abstract

Tue, Nov 4th, 2014
  12 noon -1 pm 
Room Jean-Paul Aubert

Christian ROBERT

ABC methods for Bayesian model choice

Abstract

Tue, Dec 2nd, 2014
12 noon -1 pm 
Room DUCLAUX RDC HAUT

Guillaume ACHAZ

The strange case of the Standard Neutral Model of molecular evolution: when, what and why

Abstract

Tue, Jan 13th, 2015 
 12 noon -1 pm
Room DUCLAUX RDC HAUT

Nicolas BACAER

Epidemic models and seasonality

Abstract

Tue, Feb 10th, 2015 
12 noon -1 pm 
Room BIME 28-01-01A

Benoit PERTHAME

Kinetic models of chemotaxis and traveling pulses

Abtract

Tue, Mar 10th, 2015 
  12 noon -1 pm 
Room DUCLAUX RDC HAUT

Samuel ALIZON

Why does HIV harm its host? Clinical and epidemiological applications of virus phylogenies

Abstract

Tue, Apr 14th, 2015 
  12 noon -1 pm 
Room BIME 28-01-01A

Alan PERELSON

Mathematical modeling and the potential cure of HIV

Abstract

Wed, May 20th, 2015 
  12 noon -1 pm 
Room Retrovirus

Ron BROOKMEYER

Tracking the AIDS Epidemic: Estimating HIV Incidence

Abtract

Tue, June 2nd, 2015  
12 noon -1 pm 
Pitié Salpétrière hospital,
Ecologie Cellulaire bldg.

 

 

 

Full Schedule 2013-2014

 

Alun LLOYD

Modeling novel strategies for controlling mosquito-borne diseases

Abstract 

Tue, Sep 24th, 2013 
  12 noon -1 pm 
Room Jean-Paul Aubert

Joseph DUREAU

 The Public Library of Models: an open source project towards social modeling

Abstract

Tue, Oct 8th, 2013 
  12 noon -1 pm 

Room Jules Bordet 

Julia GOG

Capturing the spread and evolution of influenza A

Abstract

Tue, Nov 5th, 2013 
  12 noon -1 pm 
Room Jean-Paul Aubert

Véronique THOMAS-VASLIN

Modélisation de la dynamique lymphocytaire T 

Abstract

Tue, Dec 10th, 2013 
  12 noon -1 pm 

Room Jean-Paul Aubert

Bernard
 CAZELLES

Wavelet analysis as a tool for considering non-stationarity in Epidemiology

Abstract

Tue, Jan 7th, 2014 
  12 noon -1 pm 

Room Jean-Paul Aubert

Jeremie GUEDJ

Modeling hepatitis C viral kinetic in the era of direct acting antiviral agents: review and perspectives

Abstract

Tue, Feb 11th, 2014
  12 noon -1 pm 

Room Jean-Paul Aubert

Peter WHITE

Tackling TB in the Age of Austerity: ensuring we use novel tools and approaches cost-effectively

Abstract

Tue, Mar 4th, 2014
  12:30 noon -1:30 pm

Room Jean-Paul Aubert  

Aurélien LATOUCHE

Regression modeling of the cumulative incidence function with missing causes of failure

Abstract

Tue, Apr 1st, 2014
  12 noon -1 pm

Room Jean-Paul Aubert 

Aaron KING

How to tell if the honeymoon is over: testing hypotheses about pertussis and its resurgence

Abstract

Tue, May 6th, 2014
  12 noon -1 pm 

Room Jean-Paul Aubert 

Carlo Giovanni CAMARDA

Modelling Social Contact Data: a smoothing constrained approach

Abstract

Tue, Jun 10h, 2014
  12 noon -1 pm 

Room Jean-Paul Aubert 

Financements