Présentation
Statistical and Mathematical Modeling in Biological Applications — SaMMBA
The seminar series Statistical and Mathematical Modeling in Biological Applications (SaMMBA) features monthly lectures and discussions with leading modelers in biological sciences. Presentations are in English or French and target an interdisciplinary audience. Seminars are held on the campus of Institut Pasteur. Access is free. However, to enter the campus, one needs a badge that is obtained at the main gate in exchange of a piece of ID (passport, citizen card or driver licence). If you are planning to come from outside the campus, please contact Lulla Opatowski to have a badge ready when you arrive.
For additional information about the series, contact the organizers: Pierre-Yves Böelle, Romulus Breban, Vittoria Colizza, Judith Legrand, Lulla Opatowski, Chiara Poletto, Virginie Supervie, Laura Temime and Elisabeta Vergu. To arrange to meet with an invited speaker, contact the host of that speaker.
The SaMMBA seminars receive financial support from the ANRS and the region Ile de France through the “DIM Systèmes complexes” and from the department MIA of INRA.
Next Lecture
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David Paltiel (Yale school of Public Health) Do Less Harm: Evaluating HIV Programmatic Alternatives in Response to Cutbacks in Foreign Aid Abstract: Background: Resource-limited nations must consider their response to potential contractions in international support for HIV programs. We sought to evaluate the clinical, epidemiologic, and budgetary consequences of alternative HIV program scale-back strategies in 2 recipient nations, the Republic of South Africa (RSA) and Côte d’Ivoire (CI). Methods: We used a first-order Monte Carlo simulation of HIV disease progression and treatment in resource-limited settings, to compare alternative approaches to scaling back HIV testing, linkage, treatment, monitoring, and retention activities as a means of budgetary contraction. We analyzed 10 annual cohorts of HIV-infected persons beginning in 2016, and accounted for new infections, new diagnoses, ART initiations, loss to follow-up, and ART-associated virologic outcomes. Performance measures included new HIV transmissions, deaths, years of life accrued, and overall HIV-related financial outlays (international or domestic), measured in undiscounted and discounted (for incremental cost-effectiveness analysis) 2015 U.S. dollars. Each alternative scale-back approach was compared with a “current standard” benchmark, representing the present-day state of treatment. We conducted the analysis over 5- and 10-year horizons in RSA and CI to highlight important differences between the countries in terms of HIV disease burden, standards of HIV care, and relative domestic contribution to their overall HIV/AIDS program budget.Results: At 10 years, scale-back strategies increase projected HIV transmissions by 0.5% to 19.4% and deaths by 0.6% to 39.1%. Strategies can produce budgetary savings of up to 30% but no more. Compared with the current standard, nearly every scale-back strategy produces proportionally more HIV deaths (and transmissions, in RSA) than savings. When applying the least harmful and most efficient alternatives for achieving budget cuts of 10% to 20%, every year of life lost will save roughly $900 in HIV-related outlays in RSA and $600 to $900 in CI. Conclusion: Scaling back international aid to HIV programs will have severe adverse clinical consequences; for similar economic savings, certain programmatic scale-back choices result in less harm than others. Contact: Virginie Surpervie
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Wednesday, Nov 14th, 2017 |
Full Schedule 2017-2018
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Benoit Durand |
Analysis of the Spatial Organization of Pastures as a Contact Network, Implications for Potential Disease Spread and Biosecurity in Livestock, France, 2010 |
Tuesday, Sept 5th, 2017 |
| The R Epidemics Consortium: building the next generation of statistical tools for outbreak response using R | Tuesday, Oct 4th, 2017 12 noon -1 pm Institut Pasteur Room BIME 28-01-01A |
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| Do Less Harm: Evaluating HIV Programmatic Alternatives in Response to Cutbacks in Foreign Aid | Wednesday, Nov 14th, 2017 12 noon -1 pm Institut Pasteur Room auditorium François Jacob |
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| Thibaud Porphyre | Wednesday, Dec 13th, 2017 12 noon -1 pm Institut Pasteur Room auditorium François Jacob |
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Full Schedule 2016-2017
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Studying drivers for arboviral emergence: the case of Rift Valley fever in Mayotte |
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Wednesday, Sept 7th, 2016 |
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A heat-stable rotavirus vaccine: a Phase III trial in Niger |
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Friday, Oct 14th, 2016 |
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Tracking and tackling the HIV-1 pandemic: models, evolution, genomics
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Wednesday, Nov 9th, 2016 |
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Using frailty models to quantify heterogeneity in acquisition of infectious diseases based on multivariate serological data |
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Tuesday, Dec 6th, 2016 |
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Modelling Yellow Fever burden in Africa: insights for short- and long-term control strategies.
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Wednesday, Jan 4th, 2017 |
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Fast and accurate dynamic estimation of field effectiveness of meningococcal vaccines |
Thursday, Feb 2nd, 2017 |
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Anne GOELZER |
Quantitative prediction of genome-wide resource allocation in bacteria |
Tuesday, March 7th, 2017 |
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Modèles mathématiques pour des épidémies se propageant sur des graphes aléatoires |
Wednesday, April 19th, 2017 |
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Modeling the dynamics of a synthetic gut community |
Wednesday, May 3rd, 2017 |
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Romulus Breban |
Diffusion within Populations: From Infectious Diseases and Market Sales to Fashion First Names |
Thursday, June 8th, 2017 |
Full Schedule 2015-2016
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Henrik SALJE |
Use of mathematical modelling to reconstruct 60 years of chikungunya epidemiology in the Philippines |
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Wed, Sep 9th, 2015 |
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Anton CAMACHO |
The impact of dynamical modelling on public-health decisions made during the 2013-2015 Ebola outbreak |
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Tuesday, Oct 6th, 2015
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Modeling and simulation of complex pharmacometric models: methods and tools |
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Tue, Nov 3rd, 2015 |
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Eco-evolutionary dynamics in spatially complex systems: from agro-ecology to the global ocean |
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Tue, Dec 8th, 2015 |
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Modeling the contagion dynamics of the 2005 French riots |
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Tuesday, Jan 5th, 2016 |
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Infectious diseases in pigs: from parameter estimation to dynamic models |
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Tue, Feb 9th, 2016 |
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Digital Epidemiology: Opportunities & Challenges of an Evolving Field |
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Wed, March 16th, 2016 |
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Prediction of antibiotic resistance in Staphylcoccus aureus |
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Tue, April 5th, 2016 |
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Phylodynamic inference in viral outbreaks: power and limitations.
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Tue, May 3rd, 2016 |
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Second-guessing the clustering of multiple HPV types: prospects of type replacement following mass immunization |
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Tue, June 14th, 2016 |
Full Schedule 2014-2015
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Dynamics of Interacting Diseases |
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Tue, Sep 9th, 2014 |
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Modelling disease spatial spread and real time assessment of emerging pathogen events |
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Wed, Oct 8th, 2014 |
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Integrative network inference of gene expression data and applications to inflammatory bowel disease |
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Tue, Nov 4th, 2014 |
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ABC methods for Bayesian model choice |
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Tue, Dec 2nd, 2014 |
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The strange case of the Standard Neutral Model of molecular evolution: when, what and why |
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Tue, Jan 13th, 2015 |
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Epidemic models and seasonality |
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Tue, Feb 10th, 2015 |
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Kinetic models of chemotaxis and traveling pulses |
Abtract |
Tue, Mar 10th, 2015 |
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Why does HIV harm its host? Clinical and epidemiological applications of virus phylogenies |
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Tue, Apr 14th, 2015 |
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Mathematical modeling and the potential cure of HIV |
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Wed, May 20th, 2015 |
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Tracking the AIDS Epidemic: Estimating HIV Incidence |
Abtract |
Tue, June 2nd, 2015
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Full Schedule 2013-2014
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Modeling novel strategies for controlling mosquito-borne diseases |
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Tue, Sep 24th, 2013 |
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The Public Library of Models: an open source project towards social modeling |
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Tue, Oct 8th, 2013 |
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Capturing the spread and evolution of influenza A |
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Tue, Nov 5th, 2013 |
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Modélisation de la dynamique lymphocytaire T |
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Tue, Dec 10th, 2013 |
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Wavelet analysis as a tool for considering non-stationarity in Epidemiology |
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Tue, Jan 7th, 2014 |
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Modeling hepatitis C viral kinetic in the era of direct acting antiviral agents: review and perspectives |
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Tue, Feb 11th, 2014 |
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Tackling TB in the Age of Austerity: ensuring we use novel tools and approaches cost-effectively |
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Tue, Mar 4th, 2014 |
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Regression modeling of the cumulative incidence function with missing causes of failure |
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Tue, Apr 1st, 2014 |
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How to tell if the honeymoon is over: testing hypotheses about pertussis and its resurgence |
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Tue, May 6th, 2014 |
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Modelling Social Contact Data: a smoothing constrained approach |
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Tue, Jun 10h, 2014 |
