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© Research
Publication : Journal of Business & Economic Statistics

Testing Instantaneous Causality in Presence of Nonconstant Unconditional Covariance

Scientific Fields
Diseases
Organisms
Applications
Technique

Published in Journal of Business & Economic Statistics - 02 Jan 2015

Giai Gianetto Q, Raïssi H

Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Volume 33, Number 1, 2015, pp. 46-53

This article investigates the problem of testing instantaneous causality between vector autoregressive (VAR) variables with time-varying unconditional covariance. It is underlined that the standard test does not control the Type I errors, while the tests with White and heteroscedastic autocorrelation consistent (HAC) corrections can suffer from a severe loss of power when the covariance is not constant.  Consequently, we propose a modified test based on a bootstrap procedure. We illustrate the relevance of the modified test through a simulation study. The tests considered in this article are also compared by investigating the instantaneous causality relations between U.S. macroeconomic variables.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2014.920614