Search anything and hit enter
  • Teams
  • Members
  • Projects
  • Events
  • Calls
  • Jobs
  • publications
  • Software
  • Tools
  • Network
  • Equipment

A little guide for advanced search:

  • Tip 1. You can use quotes "" to search for an exact expression.
    Example: "cell division"
  • Tip 2. You can use + symbol to restrict results containing all words.
    Example: +cell +stem
  • Tip 3. You can use + and - symbols to force inclusion or exclusion of specific words.
    Example: +cell -stem
e.g. searching for members in projects tagged cancer
Search for
Count
IN
OUT
Content 1
  • member
  • team
  • department
  • center
  • program_project
  • nrc
  • whocc
  • project
  • software
  • tool
  • patent
  • Administrative Staff
  • Assistant Professor
  • Associate Professor
  • Clinical Research Assistant
  • Clinical Research Nurse
  • Clinician Researcher
  • Department Manager
  • Dual-education Student
  • Full Professor
  • Honorary Professor
  • Lab assistant
  • Master Student
  • Non-permanent Researcher
  • Nursing Staff
  • Permanent Researcher
  • Pharmacist
  • PhD Student
  • Physician
  • Post-doc
  • Prize
  • Project Manager
  • Research Associate
  • Research Engineer
  • Retired scientist
  • Technician
  • Undergraduate Student
  • Veterinary
  • Visiting Scientist
  • Deputy Director of Center
  • Deputy Director of Department
  • Deputy Director of National Reference Center
  • Deputy Head of Facility
  • Director of Center
  • Director of Department
  • Director of Institute
  • Director of National Reference Center
  • Group Leader
  • Head of Facility
  • Head of Operations
  • Head of Structure
  • Honorary President of the Departement
  • Labex Coordinator
Content 2
  • member
  • team
  • department
  • center
  • program_project
  • nrc
  • whocc
  • project
  • software
  • tool
  • patent
  • Administrative Staff
  • Assistant Professor
  • Associate Professor
  • Clinical Research Assistant
  • Clinical Research Nurse
  • Clinician Researcher
  • Department Manager
  • Dual-education Student
  • Full Professor
  • Honorary Professor
  • Lab assistant
  • Master Student
  • Non-permanent Researcher
  • Nursing Staff
  • Permanent Researcher
  • Pharmacist
  • PhD Student
  • Physician
  • Post-doc
  • Prize
  • Project Manager
  • Research Associate
  • Research Engineer
  • Retired scientist
  • Technician
  • Undergraduate Student
  • Veterinary
  • Visiting Scientist
  • Deputy Director of Center
  • Deputy Director of Department
  • Deputy Director of National Reference Center
  • Deputy Head of Facility
  • Director of Center
  • Director of Department
  • Director of Institute
  • Director of National Reference Center
  • Group Leader
  • Head of Facility
  • Head of Operations
  • Head of Structure
  • Honorary President of the Departement
  • Labex Coordinator
Search

← Go to Research

Go back
Scroll to top
Share
© Research
Publication : Nature communications

Systematic selection between age and household structure for models aimed at emerging epidemic predictions.

Scientific Fields
Diseases
Organisms
Applications
Technique

Published in Nature communications - 14 Feb 2020

Pellis L, Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM, Fraser C,

Link to Pubmed [PMID] – 32060265

Link to DOI – 10.1038/s41467-019-14229-4

Nat Commun 2020 02; 11(1): 906

Numerous epidemic models have been developed to capture aspects of human contact patterns, making model selection challenging when they fit (often-scarce) early epidemic data equally well but differ in predictions. Here we consider the invasion of a novel directly transmissible infection and perform an extensive, systematic and transparent comparison of models with explicit age and/or household structure, to determine the accuracy loss in predictions in the absence of interventions when ignoring either or both social components. We conclude that, with heterogeneous and assortative contact patterns relevant to respiratory infections, the model’s age stratification is crucial for accurate predictions. Conversely, the household structure is only needed if transmission is highly concentrated in households, as suggested by an empirical but robust rule of thumb based on household secondary attack rate. This work serves as a template to guide the simplicity/accuracy trade-off in designing models aimed at initial, rapid assessment of potential epidemic severity.