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© Research
Publication : Radiotherapy and oncology : journal of the European Society for Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology

Multivariable model development and internal validation for prostate cancer specific survival and overall survival after whole-gland salvage Iodine-125 prostate brachytherapy

Scientific Fields
Diseases
Organisms
Applications
Technique

Published in Radiotherapy and oncology : journal of the European Society for Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology - 17 Feb 2016

Peters M, van der Voort van Zyp JR, Moerland MA, Hoekstra CJ, van de Pol S, Westendorp H, Maenhout M, Kattevilder R, Verkooijen HM, van Rossum PS, Ahmed HU, Shah TT, Emberton M, van Vulpen M

Link to Pubmed [PMID] – 26897512

Radiother Oncol 2016 04;119(1):104-10

BACKGROUND: Whole-gland salvage Iodine-125-brachytherapy is a potentially curative treatment strategy for localised prostate cancer (PCa) recurrences after radiotherapy. Prognostic factors influencing PCa-specific and overall survival (PCaSS & OS) are not known. The objective of this study was to develop a multivariable, internally validated prognostic model for survival after whole-gland salvage I-125-brachytherapy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: Whole-gland salvage I-125-brachytherapy patients treated in the Netherlands from 1993-2010 were included. Eligible patients had a transrectal ultrasound-guided biopsy-confirmed localised recurrence after biochemical failure (clinical judgement, ASTRO or Phoenix-definition). Recurrences were assessed clinically and with CT and/or MRI. Metastases were excluded using CT/MRI and technetium-99m scintigraphy. Multivariable Cox-regression was used to assess the predictive value of clinical characteristics in relation to PCa-specific and overall mortality. PCa-specific mortality was defined as patients dying with distant metastases present. Missing data were handled using multiple imputation (20 imputed sets). Internal validation was performed and the C-statistic calculated. Calibration plots were created to visually assess the goodness-of-fit of the final model. Optimism-corrected survival proportions were calculated. All analyses were performed according to the TRIPOD statement.

RESULTS: Median total follow-up was 78months (range 5-139). A total of 62 patients were treated, of which 28 (45%) died from PCa after mean (±SD) 82 (±36) months. Overall, 36 patients (58%) patients died after mean 84 (±40) months. PSA doubling time (PSADT) remained a predictive factor for both types of mortality (PCa-specific and overall): corrected hazard ratio’s (HR’s) 0.92 (95% CI: 0.86-0.98, p=0.02) and 0.94 (95% CI: 0.90-0.99, p=0.01), respectively (C-statistics 0.71 and 0.69, respectively). Calibration was accurate up to 96month follow-up. Over 80% of patients can survive 8years if PSADT>24months (PCaSS) and >33months (OS). Only approximately 50% survival is achieved with a PSADT of 12months.

CONCLUSION: A PSADT of respectively >24months and >33months can result in >80% probability of PCa- specific and overall survival 8years after whole-gland salvage I-125-brachytherapy. Survival should be weighed against toxicity from a salvage procedure. Larger series and external validation are necessary.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26897512