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© Research
Publication : Nature communications

Mathematical modelling of the impact of expanding levels of malaria control interventions on Plasmodium vivax

Scientific Fields
Diseases
Organisms
Applications
Technique

Published in Nature communications - 17 Aug 2018

White MT, Walker P, Karl S, Hetzel MW, Freeman T, Waltmann A, Laman M, Robinson LJ, Ghani A, Mueller I

Link to Pubmed [PMID] – 30120250

Nat Commun 2018 Aug;9(1):3300

Plasmodium vivax poses unique challenges for malaria control and elimination, notably the potential for relapses to maintain transmission in the face of drug-based treatment and vector control strategies. We developed an individual-based mathematical model of P. vivax transmission calibrated to epidemiological data from Papua New Guinea (PNG). In many settings in PNG, increasing bed net coverage is predicted to reduce transmission to less than 0.1% prevalence by light microscopy, however there is substantial risk of rebounds in transmission if interventions are removed prematurely. In several high transmission settings, model simulations predict that combinations of existing interventions are not sufficient to interrupt P. vivax transmission. This analysis highlights the potential options for the future of P. vivax control: maintaining existing public health gains by keeping transmission suppressed through indefinite distribution of interventions; or continued development of strategies based on existing and new interventions to push for further reduction and towards elimination.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30120250