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© Research
Publication : Science (New York, N.Y.)

Indian Ocean temperature anomalies predict long-term global dengue trends.

Team: Mathematical Modelling Of Infectious Diseases
Member: Simon Cauchemez
Scientific Fields
Diseases
Organisms
Applications
Technique

Published in Science (New York, N.Y.) - 10 May 2024

Chen Y, Xu Y, Wang L, Liang Y, Li N, Lourenço J, Yang Y, Lin Q, Wang L, Zhao H, Cazelles B, Song H, Liu Z, Wang Z, Brady OJ, Cauchemez S, Tian H

Link to Pubmed [PMID] – 38723095

Link to DOI – 10.1126/science.adj4427

Science 2024 May; 384(6696): 639-646

Despite identifying El Niño events as a factor in dengue dynamics, predicting the oscillation of global dengue epidemics remains challenging. Here, we investigate climate indicators and worldwide dengue incidence from 1990 to 2019 using climate-driven mechanistic models. We identify a distinct indicator, the Indian Ocean basin-wide (IOBW) index, as representing the regional average of sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean. IOBW is closely associated with dengue epidemics for both the Northern and Southern hemispheres. The ability of IOBW to predict dengue incidence likely arises as a result of its effect on local temperature anomalies through teleconnections. These findings indicate that the IOBW index can potentially enhance the lead time for dengue forecasts, leading to better-planned and more impactful outbreak responses.