Search anything and hit enter
  • Teams
  • Members
  • Projects
  • Events
  • Calls
  • Jobs
  • publications
  • Software
  • Tools
  • Network
  • Equipment

A little guide for advanced search:

  • Tip 1. You can use quotes "" to search for an exact expression.
    Example: "cell division"
  • Tip 2. You can use + symbol to restrict results containing all words.
    Example: +cell +stem
  • Tip 3. You can use + and - symbols to force inclusion or exclusion of specific words.
    Example: +cell -stem
e.g. searching for members in projects tagged cancer
Search for
Count
IN
OUT
Content 1
  • member
  • team
  • department
  • center
  • program_project
  • nrc
  • whocc
  • project
  • software
  • tool
  • patent
  • Administrative Staff
  • Assistant Professor
  • Associate Professor
  • Clinical Research Assistant
  • Full Professor
  • Graduate Student
  • Lab assistant
  • Non-permanent Researcher
  • Permanent Researcher
  • Pharmacist
  • PhD Student
  • Physician
  • Post-doc
  • Project Manager
  • Research Associate
  • Research Engineer
  • Retired scientist
  • Technician
  • Undergraduate Student
  • Veterinary
  • Visiting Scientist
  • Deputy Director of Center
  • Deputy Director of Department
  • Deputy Director of National Reference Center
  • Deputy Head of Facility
  • Director of Center
  • Director of Department
  • Director of Institute
  • Director of National Reference Center
  • Group Leader
  • Head of Facility
  • Head of Operations
  • Head of Structure
  • Honorary President of the Departement
  • Labex Coordinator
Content 2
  • member
  • team
  • department
  • center
  • program_project
  • nrc
  • whocc
  • project
  • software
  • tool
  • patent
  • Administrative Staff
  • Assistant Professor
  • Associate Professor
  • Clinical Research Assistant
  • Full Professor
  • Graduate Student
  • Lab assistant
  • Non-permanent Researcher
  • Permanent Researcher
  • Pharmacist
  • PhD Student
  • Physician
  • Post-doc
  • Project Manager
  • Research Associate
  • Research Engineer
  • Retired scientist
  • Technician
  • Undergraduate Student
  • Veterinary
  • Visiting Scientist
  • Deputy Director of Center
  • Deputy Director of Department
  • Deputy Director of National Reference Center
  • Deputy Head of Facility
  • Director of Center
  • Director of Department
  • Director of Institute
  • Director of National Reference Center
  • Group Leader
  • Head of Facility
  • Head of Operations
  • Head of Structure
  • Honorary President of the Departement
  • Labex Coordinator
Search
Go back
Scroll to top
Share
© Research
Project

Bayesian Monitoring of Emerging Epidemics

Scientific Fields
Diseases
Organisms
Applications
Technique
Starting Date
15
Dec 2015
Status
Ongoing
Members
1
Structures
1

About

Recent experience with SARS and MERS-CoV reveals the hurdles of surveying pandemic risk of emerging infectious diseases. Initially, both diseases showed low transmissibility, insufficient to start pandemics. However, concerns were that, after a short circulation period within human populations, the virus might adapt to efficacious inter-human transmission. R0, the number of secondary cases per index case in a disease-naive population, is a sound indicator of the pathogen transmissibility. When R0 > 1, epidemic potential is reached, or else R0 < 1 and disease transmission goes extinct. We propose a new method to detect small temporal changes in R0 using surveillance data. The method is based on Bayesian statistics, consistent with the concepts of surveillance and learning. Furthermore, Bayesian inference is flexible, easily accommodating data of various type and quality. We will use mathematical modeling to construct the likelihood of observing the dataset and extract the dynamic of R0 using Bayesian analysis.

Currently, there exists no definite method to monitor the pandemic risk of an emerging infectious disease using surveillance data. Given recent experience in global health (e.g., SARS and MERS-CoV), the need for such a method can hardly be underestimated. Notably, changes in R0 are not only due to pathogen changes, but also to social changes and public health interventions. If validated, our method could be used for validation of interventions against emerging infectious diseases. Such interventions include: mass vaccination and state of emergency comprising quarantine and traffic restrictions.