The current research of Romulus Breban focuses on modeling the transmission on HCV in Egypt and developing new analyses techniques for monitoring emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases. The aim of his research is to provide assistance to policy makers for designing public health interventions for epidemic control for a variety of situations not covered by standard epidemiological tools. Hence, the modeling projects rely on a tight collaborative effort with medical doctors, public health experts and biologists. The modeling approach mix-and-matches a broad range of quantitative techniques, borrowed from dynamical systems, statistics and game theory, that allows a creative approach to model building and a very flexible approach to epidemiological data. Previously the research of Romulus Breban focused on modeling the fundamentals of vaccination uptake, environmental transmission of pathogens, individual-level dynamics of HIV infection and bladder cancer.
Bayesian Monitoring of Emerging Epidemics
Recent experience with SARS and MERS-CoV reveals the hurdles of surveying pandemic risk of emerging infectious diseases. Initially, both diseases showed low transmissibility, insufficient to start pandemics. However, concerns were that, after a short […]
Investigative Mathematical MOdeling of Transmission of HEPatitis C in an Egyptian hospital (IMMOTHEP—ANRS 12320)
Although the risk of HCV acquisition during certain medical procedures, such as dialysis or blood transfusion, has been previously estimated for patients from high-income countries, the overall risk of HCV acquisition associated with hospital […]
2016Bayesian Monitoring of Emerging Infectious Diseases, PLoS ONE 2016;11(4):e0152629.
2015Risk of HIV transmission under combined antiretroviral therapy: toward risk zero?, J. Acquir. Immune Defic. Syndr. 2015 Mar;68(3):e41-2.
2014Feasible HCV targets in Egypt – authors’ reply, Lancet Glob Health 2014 Dec;2(12):e688.
2014Effect of preventive and curative interventions on hepatitis C virus transmission in Egypt (ANRS 1211): a modelling study, Lancet Glob Health 2014 Sep;2(9):e541-e549.
2014Heterosexual risk of HIV transmission per sexual act under combined antiretroviral therapy: systematic review and bayesian modeling, Clin. Infect. Dis. 2014 Jul;59(1):115-22.
2013Interhuman transmissibility of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: estimation of pandemic risk, Lancet 2013 Aug;382(9893):694-9.
2012Role of environmental persistence in pathogen transmission: a mathematical modeling approach, J Math Biol 2013 Feb;66(3):535-46.
2012Mathematical model of tumor immunotherapy for bladder carcinoma identifies the limitations of the innate immune response, Oncoimmunology 2012 Jan;1(1):9-17.
2011Health newscasts for increasing influenza vaccination coverage: an inductive reasoning game approach, PLoS ONE 2011;6(12):e28300.
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