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© Research
Publication :

Potential Transmission of Dengue Virus in Japan

Scientific Fields
Diseases
Organisms
Applications
Technique

Published in - 01 Dec 2021

Akiyoshi Senda, Anavaj Sakuntabhai, Fumihiko Matsuda, and Richard Paul

Link to DOI – 10.1007/978-981-16-5727-6_11

The global burden of dengue is increasing at an alarming rate and increased
international travel will lead to constant importation of dengue virus into nonendemic
areas. The potential for dengue epidemics in such countries during seasons
with permissive temperatures has already been underlined by epidemics in Japan and
Madeira. While improved surveillance can help identify clinical cases of dengue,
differentiating between imported and autochthonous cases remains problematical.
Implementation of a threshold criterion can help in identifying aberrant incidences
of dengue. This threshold approach was applied to dengue cases reported in the
Japanese surveillance system from 2011–2019. Several aberrant incidences occurring
during consecutive weeks were detected, one of which was concomitant to
the Yoyogi Park Tokyo epidemic but in another area, Kanagawa, and another above
thresholdweekwas coincidental with a symptomatic case of a German traveller. This
indicates autochthonous transmission. Despite the occurrence of several alert periods,
however, on no occasion did the spread of dengue progress into a full epidemic aswas
seen in Yoyogi. It thus seems likely that Yoyogi Park was a particular event and that
stochastic die-out of viruses is occurring frequently without progression, perhaps
reflecting the negative impact of societal infra-structure on dengue transmission
despite permissive temperatures. Implementation of a dengue epidemic threshold as
used for seasonal influenza may provide a basis for future seroprevalence studies to
assess the true prevalence of dengue in light of the high frequency of subclinical,
asymptomatic infections.